The temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized.
A new study published in Nature Communications estimates the effects of temperature on the transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Malaria, a mosquito-borne infectious disease that affects vertebrates, including humans, causes jaundice, seizure, coma, and even death.
Previously, temperature dependencies have not been well-studied. Although the paper stresses more work in this area needs to be done, the findings indicate that the time it takes for a mosquito to become infectious is deeply dependent on environmental temperature, but also depends on the species and strain of malaria and mosquito. What follows is the abstract.
Abstract
Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.
